"Thus, the gap between authoritative statements of technological impossibility and the “miracle of understanding” (to borrow a phrase from Nathan Myhrvold) that renders the impossible possible may sometimes be measured not in centuries, as Rod Brooks suggests, but in hours."| of myths and moonshine, russell-edge14-myths-moonshine-1 (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document, 6 KB)

David Armitage and Jo Guldi , Bonfire of the humanities Public debate is afflicted by short-term thinking – how did history abdicate its role of inspiring the longer view? | how history forgot its role in public debate

at most universities looking back means looking back 5-50 years. Five, if you take quoted literature into account.

"we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."

roy amara, 1925 - 2007