motz
dilluns, 11. de desembre 2006

technology forecasts

Remember when the microchip first appeared on the scene in the late 1970's and we were told that social transformation was inevitable? Remember the Siemens report, which allegedly predicted that 40 per cent of office jobs would soon be sacrificed to the "job de-stroyer"? And the plan by one Dutch political party for a new tax on automation? Remember, indeed, the US Senate committee report which earnestly discussed the social implications of a 22 hour work week by 1985 and retirement at age 38?

...who could have foreseen, for instance, that today we would be discussing why some executives have become "communicaholic" mobile phone users, "spreadsheet junkies", "electronic mail addicts" and "fax potatoes"? | tom forester, megatrends or megamistakes? (part 1)/(part II), 1992

anyhow, forecasts will never die out: sept 2006 for 2020net: at least they don't talk about retirement any longer - couldn't find

past and present predictions

ithiel de sola pool, forecasting the telephone: a retrospective technology assessment, 1983

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